Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Among those challenges, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) has become an active research area [1], given its potential to promote system efficiency and decisionmaking.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used inofficial CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules at this link .

We propose Random Projection Filter Bank (RPFB) as a generic and simple approach to extract features from time series data.

The inherent autocorrelation of time series data presents an ongoing challenge to multivariate time series prediction. Recently, a widely adopted approach has been the incorporation of frequency domain information to assist in long-term prediction tasks. Many researchers have independently observed the spectral bias phenomenon in neural networks, where models tend to fit low-frequency signals before high-frequency ones. However, these observations have often been attributed to the specific architectures designed by the researchers, rather than recognizing the phenomenon as a universal characteristic across models. To unify the understanding of the spectral bias phenomenon in long-term time series prediction, we conducted extensive empirical experiments to measure spectral bias in existing mainstream models. Our findings reveal that virtually all models exhibit this phenomenon. To mitigate the impact of spectral bias, we propose the FreLE (Frequency Loss Enhancement) algorithm, which enhances model generalization through both explicit and implicit frequency regularization. This is a plug-and-play model loss function unit. A large number of experiments have proven the superior performance of FreLE. Code is available at https://github.com/Chenxing-Xuan/FreLE.

The nonlinear nature of chaotic systems results in extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and highly intricate dynamical behaviors, posing fundamental challenges for accurately predicting their evolution. To overcome the limitation that conventional approaches fail to capture both local features and global dependencies in chaotic time series simultaneously, this study proposes a parallel predictive framework integrating Transformer and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks. The hybrid model employs a dual-branch architecture, where the Transformer branch mainly captures long-range dependencies while the BiLSTM branch focuses on extracting local temporal features. The complementary representations from the two branches are fused in a dedicated feature-fusion layer to enhance predictive accuracy. As illustrating examples, the model's performance is systematically evaluated on two representative tasks in the Lorenz system. The first is autonomous evolution prediction, in which the model recursively extrapolates system trajectories from the time-delay embeddings of the state vector to evaluate long-term tracking accuracy and stability. The second is inference of unmeasured variable, where the model reconstructs the unobserved states from the time-delay embeddings of partial observations to assess its state-completion capability. The results consistently indicate that the proposed hybrid framework outperforms both single-branch architectures across tasks, demonstrating its robustness and effectiveness in chaotic system prediction.

This paper addresses the problem of time series forecasting for non-stationary signals and multiple future steps prediction.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/